Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Thornton 55.5% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.4%
Defensive zone
Thornton 68.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 61.6%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Spezza
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Spezza
Thornton
Last 5: Spezza 3-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Thornton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Spezza
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
55.8% (704)
-2.0%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
56.7% (208)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
56.7% (67)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Thornton is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thornton
Home
56.4% (853)
59.0% (493)
Away
50.5% (847)
53.2% (500)
By Period
Spezza
Thornton
P1
53.4%
55.3%
P2
54.2%
55.4%
P3
53.4%
57.1%
OT
44.4%
59.3%
Final 5 min
52.7%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 2 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 06:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |