Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Thornton 52.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 73.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 62.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 59.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Spezza
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Spezza
Thornton
Last 5: Spezza 3-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
52.5% (638)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
57.1% (35)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Thornton is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thornton
Home
58.2% (376)
54.8% (341)
Away
58.2% (431)
50.6% (334)
By Period
Spezza
Thornton
P1
63.3%
55.2%
P2
54.9%
56.5%
P3
57.4%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 07:56 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |