Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Spezza wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Tavares 52.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 88.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 71.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Spezza
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Spezza
Tavares
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Spezza
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
0
Spezza
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
1
Spezza
Tavares
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
52.1% (992)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
53.7% (294)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
50.0% (22)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Spezza shoots right. Tavares is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Home / Away
Spezza
Tavares
Home
56.6% (532)
51.7% (679)
Away
56.0% (678)
53.4% (640)
By Period
Spezza
Tavares
P1
58.8%
52.2%
P2
59.6%
49.3%
P3
50.4%
56.3%
OT
57.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2011 | OT | 03:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 15:18 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 12:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |