Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.4%). Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 28 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Tavares 54.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 40-35 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 53.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 55.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Spezza
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
35
(75 meetings)
40
35
Spezza
Tavares
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
14
Spezza
Tavares
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
11
Spezza
Tavares
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
18
10
Spezza
Tavares
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
54.0% (16,108)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.5% (4,283)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
50.6% (620)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Spezza
Tavares
Home
56.8% (5,066)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Spezza
Tavares
P1
55.7%
55.0%
P2
54.4%
54.1%
P3
54.1%
54.1%
OT
51.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 3, 2016 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |