Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 26 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Toews 57.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 37-26 in 63 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 73.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 74.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 72.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Spezza
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
37
(63 meetings)
26
37
Spezza
Toews
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
11
Spezza
Toews
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
9
17
Spezza
Toews
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
5
9
Spezza
Toews
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
57.2% (13,047)
-2.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
63.3% (3,252)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
53.6% (1,810)
-0.9%
On power play, Toews has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Home / Away
Spezza
Toews
Home
56.8% (5,066)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Spezza
Toews
P1
55.7%
58.6%
P2
54.4%
57.8%
P3
54.1%
57.3%
OT
51.5%
58.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 15:09 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 1 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 05:49 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |