Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Staal 56.8% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 52.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 79.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 67.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Spezza
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Spezza
Staal
Last 7: Spezza 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
58.9% (1,041)
-5.2%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
53.4% (73)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
49.1% (171)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Staal is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Spezza
Staal
Home
55.0% (282)
59.0% (578)
Away
50.8% (295)
55.9% (707)
By Period
Spezza
Staal
P1
53.1%
57.1%
P2
53.2%
60.9%
P3
52.3%
55.8%
Final 5 min
56.7%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 02:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |