Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 55.3%). Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 29-20 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 80.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 52.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 60.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Spezza
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
29
(49 meetings)
20
29
Spezza
Staal
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
4
Spezza
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
16
Spezza
Staal
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
9
Spezza
Staal
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
55.9% (14,620)
-1.5%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
62.7% (1,745)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
48.0% (2,896)
+4.7%
On power play, Staal has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Spezza
Staal
Home
56.8% (5,066)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Spezza
Staal
P1
55.7%
55.2%
P2
54.4%
55.9%
P3
54.1%
54.9%
OT
51.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 02:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 1, 2017 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 16:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 6, 2015 | 3 | 14:39 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |