Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Bailey 45.2% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 64.7%
Defensive zone
Bailey 61.1%
Neutral zone
Bailey 64.3%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Spezza
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Bailey
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
Spezza
Bailey
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
1
Spezza
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
44.2% (441)
+11.9%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
48.1% (81)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
41.7% (84)
+14.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Spezza shoots right. Bailey is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Home / Away
Spezza
Bailey
Home
56.6% (532)
43.1% (295)
Away
56.0% (678)
45.6% (320)
By Period
Spezza
Bailey
P1
58.8%
46.5%
P2
59.6%
45.7%
P3
50.4%
41.3%
OT
57.9%
38.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2011 | OT | 01:23 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |