Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Bailey 45.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 75.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 65.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 72.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Spezza
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
Spezza
Bailey
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
5
Spezza
Bailey
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
4
Spezza
Bailey
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Bailey
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
45.8% (1,991)
+8.6%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
48.1% (295)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
39.9% (281)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Home / Away
Spezza
Bailey
Home
56.8% (5,066)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Spezza
Bailey
P1
55.7%
46.5%
P2
54.4%
44.8%
P3
54.1%
44.4%
OT
51.5%
51.1%
Final 5 min
54.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2012 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 20, 2012 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2012 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 20, 2012 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 3, 2012 | OT | 01:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 15, 2011 | OT | 01:23 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |