Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.1% vs Hayes 50.5% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 52.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 86.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Spezza
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Spezza
Hayes
Last 8: Spezza 2-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
4
Spezza
Hayes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Spezza
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (654)
50.4% (850)
+6.0%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.4% (39)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
50.2% (223)
-0.2%
On even strength, Spezza has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Spezza shoots right. Hayes is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Spezza
Hayes
Home
61.4% (352)
50.0% (586)
Away
50.9% (395)
51.1% (526)
By Period
Spezza
Hayes
P1
60.6%
52.3%
P2
54.8%
52.3%
P3
52.5%
47.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2018 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 2 | 01:44 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |