Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 26-26 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 50.3%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 54.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 57.7%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Spezza
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
26
(52 meetings)
26
26
Spezza
Scheifele
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
13
Spezza
Scheifele
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
13
10
Spezza
Scheifele
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
3
Spezza
Scheifele
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
46.3% (12,036)
+8.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
50.2% (2,563)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
41.6% (598)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Home / Away
Spezza
Scheifele
Home
56.8% (5,066)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Spezza
Scheifele
P1
55.7%
48.2%
P2
54.4%
45.6%
P3
54.1%
46.8%
OT
51.5%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 06:15 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 02:56 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |