Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 66.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 58.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Spezza
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Spezza
MacKinnon
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
1
Spezza
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Spezza
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
49.3% (1,167)
+2.0%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
61.0% (187)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
47.9% (167)
-3.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Spezza is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Spezza shoots right. MacKinnon is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Spezza
MacKinnon
Home
53.7% (374)
57.7% (728)
Away
50.3% (304)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Spezza
MacKinnon
P1
50.2%
50.1%
P2
50.2%
52.5%
P3
56.2%
49.3%
OT
66.7%
43.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 13:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 03:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |