Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+7.5%)
Offensive zone
Spezza 50.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Spezza
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
45.8% (755)
+7.9%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
48.3% (60)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
27.6% (29)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Spezza is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Spezza shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Spezza
MacKinnon
Home
55.0% (282)
49.5% (396)
Away
50.8% (295)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Spezza
MacKinnon
P1
53.1%
50.2%
P2
53.2%
43.8%
P3
52.3%
41.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%