Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Paul 50.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 78.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 74.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Spezza
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Spezza
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Spezza
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
53.0% (644)
+0.7%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
37.5% (24)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
42.9% (177)
-4.7%
On power play, Spezza has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Spezza
Paul
Home
55.0% (282)
52.5% (516)
Away
50.8% (295)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Spezza
Paul
P1
53.1%
47.6%
P2
53.2%
48.4%
P3
52.3%
54.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |