Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Paul 52.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 86.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 70.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Spezza
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Spezza
Paul
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
1
Spezza
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Spezza
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
52.5% (3,796)
+1.9%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.5% (480)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
46.7% (574)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Spezza
Paul
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Spezza
Paul
P1
55.7%
53.9%
P2
54.4%
51.0%
P3
54.1%
52.0%
OT
51.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |