Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Zacha 50.1% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 51.3%
Defensive zone
Zacha 55.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 52.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Spezza
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Spezza
Zacha
Last 5: Spezza 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Spezza
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Spezza
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
48.0% (296)
+5.7%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
61.0% (59)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
50.0% (22)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Zacha is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Spezza
Zacha
Home
55.0% (282)
48.9% (223)
Away
50.8% (295)
51.9% (154)
By Period
Spezza
Zacha
P1
53.1%
47.9%
P2
53.2%
48.3%
P3
52.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 01:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:59 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |