Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Steel 49.4% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 74.7%
Neutral zone
Spezza 73.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Spezza
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Spezza
Steel
Last 9: Spezza 6-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
1
Spezza
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
49.5% (204)
+8.5%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
57.1% (7)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
33.3% (9)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Steel is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Spezza
Steel
Home
58.2% (376)
53.2% (77)
Away
58.2% (431)
46.9% (143)
By Period
Spezza
Steel
P1
63.3%
45.5%
P2
54.9%
49.4%
P3
57.4%
52.5%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |