Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Steel 50.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 86.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 68.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 72.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Spezza
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Spezza
Steel
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Spezza
Steel
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
2
Spezza
Steel
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.5% (2,871)
+3.9%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
62.6% (179)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
37.8% (246)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Steel is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,229).
Home / Away
Spezza
Steel
Home
56.8% (5,066)
50.0% (1,551)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
50.3% (1,745)
By Period
Spezza
Steel
P1
55.7%
51.9%
P2
54.4%
49.5%
P3
54.1%
49.5%
OT
51.5%
41.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |