Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Thompson 42.8% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 88.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 77.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 82.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Spezza
Thompson
Last 8: Spezza 5-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Spezza
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
42.9% (3,521)
+11.5%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
46.8% (372)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
33.6% (265)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
56.8% (5,066)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
55.7%
44.5%
P2
54.4%
43.6%
P3
54.1%
40.2%
OT
51.5%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:13 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |