Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 19 meetings). Beagle wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Thornton 54.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 28-17 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 69.6%
Defensive zone
Beagle 94.0%
Neutral zone
Beagle 65.2%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Beagle
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
17
(45 meetings)
28
17
Beagle
Thornton
Last 10: Beagle 8-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
12
Beagle
Thornton
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
18
1
Beagle
Thornton
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
6
4
Beagle
Thornton
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
53.5% (6,640)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
57.2% (1,387)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
56.7% (427)
-2.5%
On even strength, Beagle has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Beagle shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Beagle
Thornton
Home
59.1% (3,228)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Beagle
Thornton
P1
57.4%
55.0%
P2
57.1%
53.3%
P3
56.2%
54.4%
OT
41.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
56.3%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 09:45 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 18:18 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 15:54 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |