Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Beagle wins 59.0% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 57.7% vs McCarron 49.3% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 56.0%
Defensive zone
Beagle 87.4%
Neutral zone
Beagle 61.5%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Beagle
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Beagle
McCarron
Last 7: Beagle 4-3 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Beagle
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
3
2
Beagle
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (735)
48.8% (121)
+11.5%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
50.0% (2)
-7.1%
On even strength, Beagle has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Beagle is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (293).
Beagle shoots right. McCarron is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (32).
Home / Away
Beagle
McCarron
Home
61.9% (475)
51.7% (60)
Away
55.4% (523)
46.0% (63)
By Period
Beagle
McCarron
P1
60.5%
50.0%
P2
54.4%
40.9%
P3
61.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
60.6%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
58.5%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 11:11 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 01:59 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |