Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Beagle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.7%
Defensive zone
Beagle 86.6%
Neutral zone
Beagle 56.0%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Beagle
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Beagle
MacKinnon
Last 10: Beagle 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Beagle
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Beagle
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
7
2
Beagle
MacKinnon
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
46.1% (11,218)
+11.4%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
53.3% (1,412)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
42.8% (502)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Beagle shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Beagle
MacKinnon
Home
59.1% (3,228)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Beagle
MacKinnon
P1
57.4%
47.4%
P2
57.1%
46.6%
P3
56.2%
46.1%
OT
41.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
56.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 06:34 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |