Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Beagle wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 54.7% vs Toffoli 46.1% (+17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 60.8%
Defensive zone
Beagle 97.8%
Neutral zone
Beagle 85.8%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 90.8%
90.8%
9.2%
Beagle
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Beagle
Toffoli
Last 7: Beagle 6-1 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Beagle
Toffoli
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
5
0
Beagle
Toffoli
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (212)
40.4% (47)
+18.6%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
33.3% (6)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (94)
0.0% (1)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Beagle is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Beagle shoots right. Toffoli is 26.3% vs right-shot opponents (19).
Home / Away
Beagle
Toffoli
Home
57.9% (171)
48.0% (25)
Away
54.0% (137)
31.0% (29)
By Period
Beagle
Toffoli
P1
53.3%
36.4%
P2
61.5%
50.0%
P3
54.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.3%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.2%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |