Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Beagle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Toffoli 43.0% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 64.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 98.2%
Neutral zone
Beagle 94.1%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 93.4%
93.4%
6.6%
Beagle
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Beagle
Toffoli
Last 8: Beagle 7-1 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Beagle
Toffoli
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
6
0
Beagle
Toffoli
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
41.2% (274)
+16.3%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
45.0% (40)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
26.3% (19)
+27.9%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Beagle shoots right. Toffoli is 38.9% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Home / Away
Beagle
Toffoli
Home
59.1% (3,228)
44.5% (155)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Beagle
Toffoli
P1
57.4%
47.4%
P2
57.1%
39.8%
P3
56.2%
32.9%
OT
41.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 16:08 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |