Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.4%). Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Megna 49.2% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 64.9%
Defensive zone
Megna 62.3%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.3%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Megna
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Megna
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Megna
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Megna
1
0
Megna
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Megna
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (401)
48.9% (1,125)
+0.2%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.0% (26)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
41.8% (91)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Megna has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Megna is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Megna shoots right. Lorentz is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Megna
Lorentz
Home
49.3% (227)
50.6% (609)
Away
48.6% (220)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Megna
Lorentz
P1
51.7%
53.0%
P2
49.3%
46.7%
P3
46.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
58.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Megna
46.0%▼
53.5%
49.0%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | Jayson Megna |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | Jayson Megna |