Casey Mittelstadt vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Pageau 58.8% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 85.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 53.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 67.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Last 6: Mittelstadt 2-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Mittelstadt
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
59.1% (687)
-8.7%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
69.4% (36)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
60.1% (213)
+39.9%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +39.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Home
59.3% (91)
57.8% (377)
Away
42.5% (80)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Pageau
P1
48.8%
54.1%
P2
49.1%
62.1%
P3
56.7%
61.8%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | OT | 00:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |