Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mark Kastelic
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.7% vs 60.0%). Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 62.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 61.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 50.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Pageau
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pageau
Kastelic
Last 5: Pageau 1-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Pageau
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Pageau
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
61.2% (340)
-2.1%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
83.3% (6)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
56.0% (141)
+4.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Kastelic is 68.3% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kastelic
Home
57.8% (377)
60.9% (233)
Away
61.0% (559)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Pageau
Kastelic
P1
54.1%
58.6%
P2
62.1%
58.7%
P3
61.8%
63.1%
OT
75.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
63.1%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |