Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mark Kastelic
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Kastelic 53.4% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 73.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 62.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 50.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Pageau
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pageau
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Pageau
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
55.4% (345)
+4.2%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
50.0% (4)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
35.3% (17)
+21.1%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Pageau is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Pageau shoots right. Kastelic is 65.7% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kastelic
Home
59.3% (506)
50.6% (162)
Away
60.0% (482)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Pageau
Kastelic
P1
56.8%
61.5%
P2
64.4%
52.8%
P3
56.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |