Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 70.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 73.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
47.6% (231)
+11.5%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
83.3% (12)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
33.3% (21)
+26.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.8% (377)
51.2% (164)
Away
61.0% (559)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.1%
50.0%
P2
62.1%
46.2%
P3
61.8%
49.5%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |