Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sam Carrick
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Carrick 53.8% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 82.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 63.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 76.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Pageau
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Pageau
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
55.1% (439)
+4.0%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
66.7% (3)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
49.1% (53)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carrick
Home
57.8% (377)
58.2% (225)
Away
61.0% (559)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Pageau
Carrick
P1
54.1%
56.7%
P2
62.1%
52.8%
P3
61.8%
54.4%
Final 5 min
63.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |