Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Carter 58.5% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 58.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 91.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 77.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Barkov
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barkov
Carter
Last 5: Barkov 4-1 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
0
Barkov
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
59.7% (727)
-6.6%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
68.1% (72)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
53.2% (139)
-2.4%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Barkov is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Barkov shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Barkov
Carter
Home
58.1% (627)
58.7% (455)
Away
52.1% (705)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Barkov
Carter
P1
53.3%
61.3%
P2
55.0%
57.1%
P3
56.0%
59.8%
OT
60.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.5%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |