Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Carter 56.4% (-21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 60.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 75.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 58.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Mercer
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Mercer
Carter
Last 9: Mercer 4-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Mercer
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
3
Mercer
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
1
Mercer
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
57.9% (885)
-22.5%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
61.7% (133)
-18.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
45.4% (119)
-45.4%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +45.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Home / Away
Mercer
Carter
Home
39.9% (283)
58.2% (543)
Away
31.3% (307)
55.9% (594)
By Period
Mercer
Carter
P1
37.7%
57.5%
P2
32.1%
57.1%
P3
37.7%
55.8%
OT
0.0%
68.2%
Final 5 min
33.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 03:45 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |