Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Carter 52.4% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 56.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 52.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Spezza
Carter
Last 9: Spezza 3-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Spezza
Carter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
51.5% (934)
+1.5%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
58.5% (164)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
52.6% (95)
-2.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
56.4% (626)
55.1% (554)
Away
51.7% (636)
50.4% (639)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
56.9%
50.8%
P2
51.9%
52.1%
P3
53.9%
54.8%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 17:36 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 04:41 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 01:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |