Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Carter 51.2% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 57.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 50.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 51.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Spezza
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Spezza
Carter
Last 5: Spezza 2-3 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Spezza
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
49.9% (935)
+8.1%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
61.8% (157)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
46.7% (92)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Spezza is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Spezza shoots right. Carter is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carter
Home
58.2% (376)
52.4% (638)
Away
58.2% (431)
50.0% (546)
By Period
Spezza
Carter
P1
63.3%
49.6%
P2
54.9%
50.9%
P3
57.4%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
57.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 01:16 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |