Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 33 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Thornton 54.3% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 56-36 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 60.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 54.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 56.4%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Carter
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
56
(92 meetings)
36
56
Carter
Thornton
Last 10: Carter 6-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
14
20
Carter
Thornton
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
22
Carter
Thornton
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
14
Carter
Thornton
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
53.5% (6,640)
-0.2%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
57.2% (1,387)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
56.7% (427)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Carter
Thornton
Home
54.7% (5,752)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Carter
Thornton
P1
53.6%
55.0%
P2
52.8%
53.3%
P3
53.1%
54.4%
OT
56.5%
56.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 18:39 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 15:37 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 12:17 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 19:29 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 08:05 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 10:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 5, 2018 | OT | 01:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 5, 2018 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |