Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Tavares 57.7% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 79.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Carter
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Carter
Tavares
Last 9: Carter 3-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Carter
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
57.5% (914)
+2.2%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
60.5% (309)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
59.1% (22)
-5.9%
On power play, Carter has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Carter
Tavares
Home
58.7% (455)
61.0% (661)
Away
60.0% (483)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Carter
Tavares
P1
61.3%
58.6%
P2
57.1%
57.8%
P3
59.8%
58.4%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.2%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |