Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 63.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 60.1% vs Tavares 58.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Carter
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carter
Tavares
Last 8: Carter 3-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Carter
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
1
Carter
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
65.6% (262)
59.2% (1,035)
+6.4%
Power Play
68.3% (63)
60.0% (310)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (99)
42.9% (7)
+7.6%
On power play, Carter has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Carter shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Carter
Tavares
Home
64.3% (207)
57.5% (668)
Away
60.8% (217)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Carter
Tavares
P1
65.3%
58.0%
P2
60.1%
60.1%
P3
63.8%
61.0%
OT
40.0%
27.8%
Final 5 min
65.3%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |