Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 43 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Toews 57.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 80-48 in 128 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 87.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 79.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 79.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Carter
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
80
(128 meetings)
48
80
Carter
Toews
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
18
27
Carter
Toews
45 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
15
28
Carter
Toews
43 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
15
25
Carter
Toews
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
57.2% (13,047)
-3.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
63.3% (3,252)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
53.6% (1,810)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Home / Away
Carter
Toews
Home
54.7% (5,752)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Carter
Toews
P1
53.6%
58.6%
P2
52.8%
57.8%
P3
53.1%
57.3%
OT
56.5%
58.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | OT | 02:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 07:35 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 03:03 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |