Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Toews 58.4% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 53.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 53.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Carter
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Carter
Toews
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
5
Carter
Toews
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Carter
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
58.0% (901)
-0.1%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
69.5% (226)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
51.7% (209)
-6.3%
On power play, Toews has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Carter
Toews
Home
58.2% (543)
59.3% (637)
Away
55.9% (594)
58.7% (699)
By Period
Carter
Toews
P1
57.5%
61.5%
P2
57.1%
55.2%
P3
55.8%
60.0%
OT
68.2%
70.6%
Final 5 min
57.0%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2021 | OT | 02:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 07:35 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 03:03 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 10:59 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 07:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |