Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Toews 61.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 68.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 72.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 56.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Carter
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Carter
Toews
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
5
Carter
Toews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
5
0
Carter
Toews
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Carter
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
61.1% (650)
-1.4%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
71.9% (192)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
59.6% (99)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Carter
Toews
Home
58.7% (455)
64.8% (560)
Away
60.0% (483)
60.6% (381)
By Period
Carter
Toews
P1
61.3%
62.3%
P2
57.1%
63.9%
P3
59.8%
62.8%
OT
57.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |