Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 35 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Staal 55.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 40-36 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 59.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 53.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Carter
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
40
(76 meetings)
36
40
Carter
Staal
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
16
19
Carter
Staal
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
13
Carter
Staal
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
10
8
Carter
Staal
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
55.9% (14,604)
-2.6%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
62.7% (1,742)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
48.0% (2,893)
-1.7%
On power play, Staal has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Staal is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (6,547).
Home / Away
Carter
Staal
Home
54.7% (5,752)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
54.3% (9,641)
By Period
Carter
Staal
P1
53.6%
55.1%
P2
52.8%
55.9%
P3
53.1%
54.9%
OT
56.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Staal
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:21 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |