Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 52.9%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Thompson 52.9% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 25-14 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 66.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 71.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 59.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Carter
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
25
(39 meetings)
14
25
Carter
Thompson
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
8
4
Carter
Thompson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
15
Carter
Thompson
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
6
Carter
Thompson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
54.1% (5,812)
-0.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
54.8% (135)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
47.9% (1,381)
-1.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Thompson is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,660).
Home / Away
Carter
Thompson
Home
54.7% (5,752)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Carter
Thompson
P1
53.6%
53.2%
P2
52.8%
52.9%
P3
53.1%
52.8%
OT
56.5%
47.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 1 | 13:07 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |