Jeff Carter vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 21 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 33-28 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 66.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 67.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Carter
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
33
(61 meetings)
28
33
Carter
MacKinnon
Last 10: Carter 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
9
Carter
MacKinnon
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
14
Carter
MacKinnon
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
10
Carter
MacKinnon
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.2%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
53.3% (1,412)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
42.8% (502)
+3.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Carter
MacKinnon
Home
54.7% (5,752)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Carter
MacKinnon
P1
53.6%
47.4%
P2
52.8%
46.6%
P3
53.1%
46.1%
OT
56.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2023 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 11:09 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 12:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 3 | 13:14 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |