Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 75.0%
Defensive zone
Carter 89.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 87.0%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Carter
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Carter
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
45.8% (755)
+12.1%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
48.3% (60)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
27.6% (29)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Carter
MacKinnon
Home
58.2% (543)
49.5% (396)
Away
55.9% (594)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Carter
MacKinnon
P1
57.5%
50.2%
P2
57.1%
43.8%
P3
55.8%
41.4%
OT
68.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |