Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 49.0% vs Patrick 52.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 63.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 55.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 53.7%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Carter
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
12
(22 meetings)
10
12
Carter
Patrick
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
6
Carter
Patrick
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
5
3
Carter
Patrick
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
2
3
Carter
Patrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (242)
51.2% (371)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
62.2% (37)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (50)
59.1% (22)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Carter is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Carter shoots right. Patrick is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Home / Away
Carter
Patrick
Home
48.6% (173)
48.5% (231)
Away
48.9% (141)
57.3% (199)
By Period
Carter
Patrick
P1
52.1%
52.0%
P2
47.8%
52.3%
P3
46.6%
53.2%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |