Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Patrick 51.0% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 21-17 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 63.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 67.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 66.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Carter
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
17
(38 meetings)
21
17
Carter
Patrick
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
8
7
Carter
Patrick
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
8
5
Carter
Patrick
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Carter
Patrick
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
50.6% (1,978)
+2.7%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
57.5% (120)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
57.7% (26)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Carter
Patrick
Home
54.7% (5,752)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Carter
Patrick
P1
53.6%
52.9%
P2
52.8%
49.1%
P3
53.1%
51.3%
OT
56.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |