Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 47 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 65-50 in 115 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 50.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 51.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 50.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Carter
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
65
(115 meetings)
50
65
Carter
Stastny
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
18
23
Carter
Stastny
41 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
20
27
Carter
Stastny
47 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
12
15
Carter
Stastny
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
54.6% (10,616)
-1.3%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
59.1% (1,994)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
52.9% (1,119)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Carter
Stastny
Home
54.7% (5,752)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Carter
Stastny
P1
53.6%
56.3%
P2
52.8%
55.4%
P3
53.1%
53.5%
OT
56.5%
62.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:43 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:13 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:14 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:36 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |