Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Stastny 56.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 89.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 63.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Carter
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Carter
Stastny
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
7
Carter
Stastny
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Carter
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Carter
Stastny
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
57.5% (412)
+2.2%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
60.0% (65)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
44.4% (9)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Carter
Stastny
Home
58.7% (455)
58.3% (276)
Away
60.0% (483)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Carter
Stastny
P1
61.3%
63.7%
P2
57.1%
57.3%
P3
59.8%
50.4%
Final 5 min
60.2%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:43 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:13 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:14 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:36 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |