Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Carpenter 50.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 83.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 68.9%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 68.7%
31.3%
68.7%
Carter
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Carter
Carpenter
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
1
Carter
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
4
Carter
Carpenter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
4
Carter
Carpenter
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
49.6% (2,027)
+3.7%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
41.5% (41)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
43.9% (467)
+2.4%
On power play, Carter has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Home / Away
Carter
Carpenter
Home
54.7% (5,752)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Carter
Carpenter
P1
53.6%
49.6%
P2
52.8%
47.7%
P3
53.1%
48.0%
OT
56.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 08:04 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 2 | 05:50 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 19:22 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |