Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (77% H2H, 26 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 68-39 in 107 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 62.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 60.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
68
(107 meetings)
39
68
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Carter 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
24
Carter
O'Reilly
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
24
Carter
O'Reilly
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
20
Carter
O'Reilly
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
56.2% (15,249)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
58.8% (3,443)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
51.4% (2,806)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,673).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
54.7% (5,752)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
54.4% (10,769)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
53.6%
55.6%
P2
52.8%
57.0%
P3
53.1%
55.0%
OT
56.5%
62.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 19:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | OT | 02:41 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 01:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 11:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |